WRs

Top Ten WRs to Avoid – Ian Hill

Here is my list of Wide Receivers who are to be avoided. We all (should) know their names and it is sometimes hard to let them go. But a horse has to be put out to pasture at some point in its career. But understand, please, that this is not  a Do Not Draft list. This is a list of guys who have fallen from grace. For example, I drafted Brandon Marshall in the 12th round last year. There was all that talk about how washed up he was, he was playing with a terrible quarterback, etc. But he has the talent and he was still around. At the point, if he is truly a flop, it didn’t cost me my second round pick. If he ends up like he did, however, it’s a huge ROI (or return on investment, for those non-business folks). Meaning, it cost me very little to get him and he ended up having one of the best years of his career. Point being that if these guys are around after the 7th round, go nuts. For all intents and purposes, I am not saying these players won’t have a bad season. I’m saying that They are high risk and very well could be limited in Draft Position Value. These are also guys I am taking a pass on for

 

 

  • Dez Bryant, DAL. Sure, Dez is 27 and in his prime. But here’s the thing. The Cowboys only have two guys defenses need to worry about: Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is being touted as a possible number one overall pick without even stepping foot on an NFL field. That’s a risk. The rest of the team is old and broken as we have seen with Tony Romo breaking his collarbone twice and Jason Witten being 34. Match that with Josh Norman now in the NFC East and Bryant coming off a shortened season with foot and ankle ailments. Not a good place to have a nagging injury as a wideout. I’m passing on Dez altogether because of all the talent around him that I can draft instead.

    Demaryius Thomas, Photo by Jeffrey Beall

    Demaryius Thomas, Photo by Jeffrey Beall

  • Demaryius Thomas, DEN. By the looks of it so far, Mark Sanchez is the current #1 Quarterback in Denver. Yes, the same Mark Sanchez who owns a 56% completion rate, 6 yards per pass, 200 yards and more than one interception per game with only 30 attempts per game on a career. Compare that to Tom Brady, whose line looks like this: 63%/7.4/257/.6/35. I don’t trust Mark Sanchez to be able to fill Peyton Manning’s shoes because he just isn’t very good. I’d take Thomas in the 5th or 6th is he is still around. But he won’t be. Don’t be that guy.
  • Alshon Jeffery, CHI. Jeffery had an injury-shortened season in 2015 but his stats for three straight years declined. He was on pace for his second lowest touchdown season since his rookie year. He was also on pace for for receptions at 89 per game. There’s two ways to look at this. One is that after the departures of Brandon Marshall for the 2015 and Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte for the 2016 leave Jeffery as the big man on campus, gobbling up all the numbers. Or he is going to get a lot of focus with the largely unproven Kevin White and Jeremy Langford along with mediocre tight end acquisition, Zach Miller. Match that with a middle-of-the-road quarterback in Jay Cutler and you have a very high risk situation.
  • Jeremy Maclin, KC. Maclin had a decent year in 2015, his first in Kansas City. But it was a down year from his 2014 breakout year where he scored 10 touchdowns with 1,300+ receiving yards. However, that was in a pass happy, high octane offense run by Chip Kelly. 2014 was also the first time Maclin had eclipsed 1,000 yards in a season. In 2015, he had just passed the 1,000 yard mark with 1,088. That was also with Jamaal Charles out for 11 games making Maclin and TE Travis Kelce the only viable targets. But what we did see was that Charcandrick West Spencer Ware and Knile Davis can all run. Expect to see a bigger focus on running and less reps for the wideouts.
  • Randall Cobb, GB. How peculiar 2015 was for Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson goes down with a torn ACL before the season making 2015 Randall Cobb’s for the taking. Except he never took anything. He had less receptions, yards, average and touchdowns than 2014 when Nelson was on the field. Instead of taking advantage of the situation, Cobb seemed unreasonably human. Now that Nelson is back, the question remains, does Cobb have it in him to be a top-notch wideout? My answer is no. He’s a fine WR2 for Green Bay, but until he shows he has what it takes for longevity’s sake, I’m going somewhere else with the pick.
  • Josh Gordon, CLE. This one is really hard for me. Gordon had unbelievable talent. But can he stay on the field? Who knows. The wideout who had to sit all of 2015 and will miss the first four games of 2016 is an absolute roll of the dice. Did he lose anything in nearly a year and a half off? Again, who knows. Can he keep the off-field issues at bay or even behind him? Same answer. There are a lot of questions surrounding Gordon at this stage. My feeling is that he had one incredible season and a slew of problems. To me, that one season doesn’t make up for it. Had he been that elite for six or seven years, the answer is to draft him. But with only one? No. I’ll draft Gordon if he’s around in the 10th because at that point, my roster is more or less set. I want to see what Gordon has after such an absence before I commit to him.
  • Vincent Jackson, TB. Jackson is 33 years old, turning 34 in January. He’s had a solid career but his twilight is clearly here. He also only has five touchdowns in his last 26 games leaving a lot to be desired. His upside is passed, especially as the opposite receiver of Mike Evans who is clearly quarterback Jameis Winston’s favorite target. Match that with the emerging (and in my opinion, 2016 breakout) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, I unfortunately see Vincent Jackson as 2016’s Roddy White. It’s OK, guys get old. They can’t perform like they should or used to.

    Mike Wallace. Photo by Trevor Peelman

    Mike Wallace. Photo by Trevor Peelman

  • Mike Wallace, BAL. If I didn’t put “BAL” next to Mike Wallace’s name, would you have known where he was playing this year? Well, probably because you are doing your research. The point is that since 2010, Wallace’s numbers have been on a steady decline. Sure, he had 10 touchdowns in 2014 with Miami, but that’s because he was the only guy on a bad team. It’s time to forget about Wallace’s “comeback” year. He hasn’t done enough in recent years to bank on him having a coming out year. At 30 and across from Kamar Aiken and his breakout 2015, Wallace has plenty of floor and not enough ceiling.
  • Sammy Watkins, BUF. This one is tough for me because I really like Watkins and even think he is going to have a good year. But this is one of those times I think the player is better served being drafted a little further back than being roughly the #12 WR (ESPN, PPR). We all saw what an injury can do to Watkins who missed three games. Pair that with the uncertainty of Tyrod Taylor and Watkins’ current status on the “Physically Unable to Play” list, this may be a time to pass him up unless he is around in the seventh round. What we’ve seen has been great. But don’t pass up an opportunity on a solid, healthy draft pick early on because Watkins might be OK.
  • Keenan Allen, SD. I feel like Keenan Allen is a bit overrated and is rated as such because he plays in a pass-happy offense. Now that Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson are gone, along with Antonio Gates being at the end of his career and Ladarius Green an underwhelming performer, Allen is the only viable threat of a receiver. Allen has seen a drastic decline in numbers every year of his career with only eight touchdowns in his last two seasons. Just because guys are gone doesn’t mean that will give a boost to the others. Also note that the other starting wideout is Travis Benjamin who showed us in 2015 that he is a credible threat, especially since he had over 200 more receiving yards than Allen with two far inferior, interchanging quarterbacks to Philip Rivers. Skip Allen this year. You’ll thank me.

 

 

Stacker2
WRs

Top Ten WRs to Avoid – Ian Hill

Here is my list of Wide Receivers who are to be avoided. We all (should) know their names and it is sometimes hard to let them go. But a horse has to be put out to pasture at some point in its career. But understand, please, that this is not  a Do Not Draft list. This is a list of guys who have fallen from grace. For example, I drafted Brandon Marshall in the 12th round last year. There was all that talk about how washed up he was, he was playing with a terrible quarterback, etc. But he has the talent and he was still around. At the point, if he is truly a flop, it didn’t cost me my second round pick. If he ends up like he did, however, it’s a huge ROI (or return on investment, for those non-business folks). Meaning, it cost me very little to get him and he ended up having one of the best years of his career. Point being that if these guys are around after the 7th round, go nuts. For all intents and purposes, I am not saying these players won’t have a bad season. I’m saying that They are high risk and very well could be limited in Draft Position Value. These are also guys I am taking a pass on for

 

 

  • Dez Bryant, DAL. Sure, Dez is 27 and in his prime. But here’s the thing. The Cowboys only have two guys defenses need to worry about: Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is being touted as a possible number one overall pick without even stepping foot on an NFL field. That’s a risk. The rest of the team is old and broken as we have seen with Tony Romo breaking his collarbone twice and Jason Witten being 34. Match that with Josh Norman now in the NFC East and Bryant coming off a shortened season with foot and ankle ailments. Not a good place to have a nagging injury as a wideout. I’m passing on Dez altogether because of all the talent around him that I can draft instead.

    Demaryius Thomas, Photo by Jeffrey Beall

    Demaryius Thomas, Photo by Jeffrey Beall

  • Demaryius Thomas, DEN. By the looks of it so far, Mark Sanchez is the current #1 Quarterback in Denver. Yes, the same Mark Sanchez who owns a 56% completion rate, 6 yards per pass, 200 yards and more than one interception per game with only 30 attempts per game on a career. Compare that to Tom Brady, whose line looks like this: 63%/7.4/257/.6/35. I don’t trust Mark Sanchez to be able to fill Peyton Manning’s shoes because he just isn’t very good. I’d take Thomas in the 5th or 6th is he is still around. But he won’t be. Don’t be that guy.
  • Alshon Jeffery, CHI. Jeffery had an injury-shortened season in 2015 but his stats for three straight years declined. He was on pace for his second lowest touchdown season since his rookie year. He was also on pace for for receptions at 89 per game. There’s two ways to look at this. One is that after the departures of Brandon Marshall for the 2015 and Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte for the 2016 leave Jeffery as the big man on campus, gobbling up all the numbers. Or he is going to get a lot of focus with the largely unproven Kevin White and Jeremy Langford along with mediocre tight end acquisition, Zach Miller. Match that with a middle-of-the-road quarterback in Jay Cutler and you have a very high risk situation.
  • Jeremy Maclin, KC. Maclin had a decent year in 2015, his first in Kansas City. But it was a down year from his 2014 breakout year where he scored 10 touchdowns with 1,300+ receiving yards. However, that was in a pass happy, high octane offense run by Chip Kelly. 2014 was also the first time Maclin had eclipsed 1,000 yards in a season. In 2015, he had just passed the 1,000 yard mark with 1,088. That was also with Jamaal Charles out for 11 games making Maclin and TE Travis Kelce the only viable targets. But what we did see was that Charcandrick West Spencer Ware and Knile Davis can all run. Expect to see a bigger focus on running and less reps for the wideouts.
  • Randall Cobb, GB. How peculiar 2015 was for Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson goes down with a torn ACL before the season making 2015 Randall Cobb’s for the taking. Except he never took anything. He had less receptions, yards, average and touchdowns than 2014 when Nelson was on the field. Instead of taking advantage of the situation, Cobb seemed unreasonably human. Now that Nelson is back, the question remains, does Cobb have it in him to be a top-notch wideout? My answer is no. He’s a fine WR2 for Green Bay, but until he shows he has what it takes for longevity’s sake, I’m going somewhere else with the pick.
  • Josh Gordon, CLE. This one is really hard for me. Gordon had unbelievable talent. But can he stay on the field? Who knows. The wideout who had to sit all of 2015 and will miss the first four games of 2016 is an absolute roll of the dice. Did he lose anything in nearly a year and a half off? Again, who knows. Can he keep the off-field issues at bay or even behind him? Same answer. There are a lot of questions surrounding Gordon at this stage. My feeling is that he had one incredible season and a slew of problems. To me, that one season doesn’t make up for it. Had he been that elite for six or seven years, the answer is to draft him. But with only one? No. I’ll draft Gordon if he’s around in the 10th because at that point, my roster is more or less set. I want to see what Gordon has after such an absence before I commit to him.
  • Vincent Jackson, TB. Jackson is 33 years old, turning 34 in January. He’s had a solid career but his twilight is clearly here. He also only has five touchdowns in his last 26 games leaving a lot to be desired. His upside is passed, especially as the opposite receiver of Mike Evans who is clearly quarterback Jameis Winston’s favorite target. Match that with the emerging (and in my opinion, 2016 breakout) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, I unfortunately see Vincent Jackson as 2016’s Roddy White. It’s OK, guys get old. They can’t perform like they should or used to.

    Mike Wallace. Photo by Trevor Peelman

    Mike Wallace. Photo by Trevor Peelman

  • Mike Wallace, BAL. If I didn’t put “BAL” next to Mike Wallace’s name, would you have known where he was playing this year? Well, probably because you are doing your research. The point is that since 2010, Wallace’s numbers have been on a steady decline. Sure, he had 10 touchdowns in 2014 with Miami, but that’s because he was the only guy on a bad team. It’s time to forget about Wallace’s “comeback” year. He hasn’t done enough in recent years to bank on him having a coming out year. At 30 and across from Kamar Aiken and his breakout 2015, Wallace has plenty of floor and not enough ceiling.
  • Sammy Watkins, BUF. This one is tough for me because I really like Watkins and even think he is going to have a good year. But this is one of those times I think the player is better served being drafted a little further back than being roughly the #12 WR (ESPN, PPR). We all saw what an injury can do to Watkins who missed three games. Pair that with the uncertainty of Tyrod Taylor and Watkins’ current status on the “Physically Unable to Play” list, this may be a time to pass him up unless he is around in the seventh round. What we’ve seen has been great. But don’t pass up an opportunity on a solid, healthy draft pick early on because Watkins might be OK.
  • Keenan Allen, SD. I feel like Keenan Allen is a bit overrated and is rated as such because he plays in a pass-happy offense. Now that Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson are gone, along with Antonio Gates being at the end of his career and Ladarius Green an underwhelming performer, Allen is the only viable threat of a receiver. Allen has seen a drastic decline in numbers every year of his career with only eight touchdowns in his last two seasons. Just because guys are gone doesn’t mean that will give a boost to the others. Also note that the other starting wideout is Travis Benjamin who showed us in 2015 that he is a credible threat, especially since he had over 200 more receiving yards than Allen with two far inferior, interchanging quarterbacks to Philip Rivers. Skip Allen this year. You’ll thank me.

 

 

Stacker2
WRs

Top Ten WRs to Avoid – Ian Hill

Here is my list of Wide Receivers who are to be avoided. We all (should) know their names and it is sometimes hard to let them go. But a horse has to be put out to pasture at some point in its career. But understand, please, that this is not  a Do Not Draft list. This is a list of guys who have fallen from grace. For example, I drafted Brandon Marshall in the 12th round last year. There was all that talk about how washed up he was, he was playing with a terrible quarterback, etc. But he has the talent and he was still around. At the point, if he is truly a flop, it didn’t cost me my second round pick. If he ends up like he did, however, it’s a huge ROI (or return on investment, for those non-business folks). Meaning, it cost me very little to get him and he ended up having one of the best years of his career. Point being that if these guys are around after the 7th round, go nuts. For all intents and purposes, I am not saying these players won’t have a bad season. I’m saying that They are high risk and very well could be limited in Draft Position Value. These are also guys I am taking a pass on for

 

 

  • Dez Bryant, DAL. Sure, Dez is 27 and in his prime. But here’s the thing. The Cowboys only have two guys defenses need to worry about: Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is being touted as a possible number one overall pick without even stepping foot on an NFL field. That’s a risk. The rest of the team is old and broken as we have seen with Tony Romo breaking his collarbone twice and Jason Witten being 34. Match that with Josh Norman now in the NFC East and Bryant coming off a shortened season with foot and ankle ailments. Not a good place to have a nagging injury as a wideout. I’m passing on Dez altogether because of all the talent around him that I can draft instead.

    Demaryius Thomas, Photo by Jeffrey Beall

    Demaryius Thomas, Photo by Jeffrey Beall

  • Demaryius Thomas, DEN. By the looks of it so far, Mark Sanchez is the current #1 Quarterback in Denver. Yes, the same Mark Sanchez who owns a 56% completion rate, 6 yards per pass, 200 yards and more than one interception per game with only 30 attempts per game on a career. Compare that to Tom Brady, whose line looks like this: 63%/7.4/257/.6/35. I don’t trust Mark Sanchez to be able to fill Peyton Manning’s shoes because he just isn’t very good. I’d take Thomas in the 5th or 6th is he is still around. But he won’t be. Don’t be that guy.
  • Alshon Jeffery, CHI. Jeffery had an injury-shortened season in 2015 but his stats for three straight years declined. He was on pace for his second lowest touchdown season since his rookie year. He was also on pace for for receptions at 89 per game. There’s two ways to look at this. One is that after the departures of Brandon Marshall for the 2015 and Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte for the 2016 leave Jeffery as the big man on campus, gobbling up all the numbers. Or he is going to get a lot of focus with the largely unproven Kevin White and Jeremy Langford along with mediocre tight end acquisition, Zach Miller. Match that with a middle-of-the-road quarterback in Jay Cutler and you have a very high risk situation.
  • Jeremy Maclin, KC. Maclin had a decent year in 2015, his first in Kansas City. But it was a down year from his 2014 breakout year where he scored 10 touchdowns with 1,300+ receiving yards. However, that was in a pass happy, high octane offense run by Chip Kelly. 2014 was also the first time Maclin had eclipsed 1,000 yards in a season. In 2015, he had just passed the 1,000 yard mark with 1,088. That was also with Jamaal Charles out for 11 games making Maclin and TE Travis Kelce the only viable targets. But what we did see was that Charcandrick West Spencer Ware and Knile Davis can all run. Expect to see a bigger focus on running and less reps for the wideouts.
  • Randall Cobb, GB. How peculiar 2015 was for Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson goes down with a torn ACL before the season making 2015 Randall Cobb’s for the taking. Except he never took anything. He had less receptions, yards, average and touchdowns than 2014 when Nelson was on the field. Instead of taking advantage of the situation, Cobb seemed unreasonably human. Now that Nelson is back, the question remains, does Cobb have it in him to be a top-notch wideout? My answer is no. He’s a fine WR2 for Green Bay, but until he shows he has what it takes for longevity’s sake, I’m going somewhere else with the pick.
  • Josh Gordon, CLE. This one is really hard for me. Gordon had unbelievable talent. But can he stay on the field? Who knows. The wideout who had to sit all of 2015 and will miss the first four games of 2016 is an absolute roll of the dice. Did he lose anything in nearly a year and a half off? Again, who knows. Can he keep the off-field issues at bay or even behind him? Same answer. There are a lot of questions surrounding Gordon at this stage. My feeling is that he had one incredible season and a slew of problems. To me, that one season doesn’t make up for it. Had he been that elite for six or seven years, the answer is to draft him. But with only one? No. I’ll draft Gordon if he’s around in the 10th because at that point, my roster is more or less set. I want to see what Gordon has after such an absence before I commit to him.
  • Vincent Jackson, TB. Jackson is 33 years old, turning 34 in January. He’s had a solid career but his twilight is clearly here. He also only has five touchdowns in his last 26 games leaving a lot to be desired. His upside is passed, especially as the opposite receiver of Mike Evans who is clearly quarterback Jameis Winston’s favorite target. Match that with the emerging (and in my opinion, 2016 breakout) Austin Seferian-Jenkins, I unfortunately see Vincent Jackson as 2016’s Roddy White. It’s OK, guys get old. They can’t perform like they should or used to.

    Mike Wallace. Photo by Trevor Peelman

    Mike Wallace. Photo by Trevor Peelman

  • Mike Wallace, BAL. If I didn’t put “BAL” next to Mike Wallace’s name, would you have known where he was playing this year? Well, probably because you are doing your research. The point is that since 2010, Wallace’s numbers have been on a steady decline. Sure, he had 10 touchdowns in 2014 with Miami, but that’s because he was the only guy on a bad team. It’s time to forget about Wallace’s “comeback” year. He hasn’t done enough in recent years to bank on him having a coming out year. At 30 and across from Kamar Aiken and his breakout 2015, Wallace has plenty of floor and not enough ceiling.
  • Sammy Watkins, BUF. This one is tough for me because I really like Watkins and even think he is going to have a good year. But this is one of those times I think the player is better served being drafted a little further back than being roughly the #12 WR (ESPN, PPR). We all saw what an injury can do to Watkins who missed three games. Pair that with the uncertainty of Tyrod Taylor and Watkins’ current status on the “Physically Unable to Play” list, this may be a time to pass him up unless he is around in the seventh round. What we’ve seen has been great. But don’t pass up an opportunity on a solid, healthy draft pick early on because Watkins might be OK.
  • Keenan Allen, SD. I feel like Keenan Allen is a bit overrated and is rated as such because he plays in a pass-happy offense. Now that Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson are gone, along with Antonio Gates being at the end of his career and Ladarius Green an underwhelming performer, Allen is the only viable threat of a receiver. Allen has seen a drastic decline in numbers every year of his career with only eight touchdowns in his last two seasons. Just because guys are gone doesn’t mean that will give a boost to the others. Also note that the other starting wideout is Travis Benjamin who showed us in 2015 that he is a credible threat, especially since he had over 200 more receiving yards than Allen with two far inferior, interchanging quarterbacks to Philip Rivers. Skip Allen this year. You’ll thank me.

 

 

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