Fantasy Advice (NFL)

Alvin Kamara to Bounce Back

Alvin Kamara. Fox Sports. CC by 3.0

Alvin Kamara had a down year last year for his standards, and he still managed to finish as RB12 (HALF-PPR) in only 14 games. On top of this, he also said he was playing at about 70% health last year.

In his 2 years in the league, Kamara finished as RB3 in 2017 and RB4 in 2018. Kamara is one of those players that you shouldn’t think twice about drafting if you have one of the first 5-6 picks in your fantasy draft. Kamara has all the weapons needed to be the top fantasy running back. He can run, he can catch, he has a good o-line, he is in a high scoring offense, and he has a hall of fame quarterback.

Last year, Kamara wasn’t able to get into the end zone as much as he did before. In 2017 and 2018, he was able to score a whopping 31 times (15.5 TD’s/year) compared to only 6 times last year. And he also fumbled 4 times in 2019 compared to just 2 total fumbles in his first 2 years. If I were a betting man, I would say that Kamara has a very realistic shot at getting back to his stellar TD production in 2020, and I’m talking about a floor of double-digit touchdowns. When you have someone with all the tools Kamara has, you shouldn’t think twice about drafting him (again, after CMC and maybe Saquon). Kamara is one of the few players in the league who have a realistic shot at 1800 total yards, 15+ TD’s and 80 receptions.

Kamara’s 3 years in the league have looked like this:

2017: 1554 total yards, 13 TD’s, 81 receptions, RB3
2018: 1592 total yards, 18 TD’s, 81 receptions, RB4
2019: 1330 total yards, 6 TD’s, 81 receptions, RB12

Kamara has also been in a pretty balanced backfield snap percentage-wise. In 45 career games, Kamara has only hit 80% of backfield snaps, just FIVE times. This could be good and bad at points. It could mean that he is missing opportunities for yards and points, but it can also mean that his legs are staying fresh and he can produce for the majority of the season. Latavious Murray will be the compliment to Kamara again this year and this means that if one of them goes down with an injury, the other will see huge fantasy production. Another good thing about Kamara is that he is basically matchup proof. He can have a tough game rushing the ball, but he can save it with his receiving abilities and TD opportunities.

My final prediction for Kamara would be that he bounces back in tremendous fashion from last year and he will gain over 1600 total yards, 15 TD’s, and 86 receptions. This will earn him one of the top fantasy player stat lines, and he will be on a lot of fantasy championship rosters.

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