You are drafting, mid 2nd round, both Rodgers and Luck are available. 1) Are you drafting one of them now or 2) stocking up on RBs and WRs and taking someone like Cam Newton or Eli Manning later on?
Do not draft a quarterback before the fourth round. Unless you want to hover in the middle of the pack all year. I have yet to ever take a QB before the fifth. Typically, quarterbacks score more points than the other players on your team. However, a bad day for a quarterback is far worse than any other position. Conversely, running backs and wide receivers can have an off day and still be productive for your team. Especially multi-tool backs such as Jamaal Charles, LeVeon Bell and LeSean McCoy. In standard ESPN leagues, Aaron Rodgers, who was the top player, had a first five weeks of 9, 27, 10, 28 and 18. Whereas, DeMarco Murray went 17, 20, 17, 26 and 16. The consistency is far better for a running back or wide receiver.
I’ve always had success building a team of backs and receivers first. In my league I went undefeated in last year, I took Jamaal Charles, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Julius Thomas and Andre Ellington in the first five rounds of a 12-team league. Thanks to the top quarterbacks going early, I was able to assemble an elite team. The score is for the team. Go with consistency.
When faced with the question of, “When do you draft a quarterback?” I am of the position that I do not draft until absolutely necessary. I know that Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are both amazing talents and that they are undoubtedly going to rack up huge numbers. Still, I don’t think that either of these players is worthy of a high draft selection.
Last I checked, most leagues count passing TD as 4 points and will typically give something like 1 point per 25 yards passing. By this metric an average game by Aaron Rodgers will get you: 2 TD and 273 yards (we’ll round up to 275 for the sake of easy math). That’s 8 points for TDs and 11 points for yardage = 19 points. Matthew Stafford (a mid-tier QB by anyone’s standards) would get you 1.7 TD (round up to 2) and 282 passing yards (round down to 275). That’s 8 points for TDs and 11 points for yardage = 19 points.
Now I know this doesn’t pan out all of the time over the course of a season and there are going to be more games where Aaron Rodgers explodes, but to me, it just isn’t worth it. Especially when a Rushing TD and a Receiving TD are both worth 6 points and Rush Yards and Receiving Yards are worth 1 point for 10, that’s 50% better on TDs and 250% better on yardage! Take position players early and often because QBs will be available who can get you sufficient points.