49ers

A QB and Two TEs Being Overvalued – J. Skolrud

by Justin Skolrud

ADP’s based on fantasyfootballcalculator.com

Quarter Back – Patrick Mahomes – Current ADP 3.01

As an advocate of drafting QB’s late in drafts (Round 8 or later) there is really only one quarterback that is being overvalued. Mahomes had a fantastic year last year and YES he won people a ton of leagues. BUT, that is because he was drafted in the 10th round last year. You stacked the rest of your roster with great players and your QB played out of his mind. 50 TDs has only been done three times in the history of the NFL. Manning did it in 2013 and had a 16 TD regression while his team had a better record. Tom Brady did it in 2007 and then played only one game in 2008 because of injury. Finally, and probably most condemning fact about fantasy, is that the difference between the QB4 overall and the QB20 was only 3.5 points per game in 2018. Don’t reach for Mahomes until the at least the mid to late 4th round.

Tight End – George Kittle – Current ADP 3.07

This has already been covered EXTENSIVELY by our staff this year but George Kittle is in for a regression brick wall to hit him hard. John O’Mary has covered this in more detail in his article highlighting George Kittle (Can Kittle Continue the Production in 2019?), but the basics are that George Kittle’s target share with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB is only 13% and resulted in 415 yards and just one TD in 9 games (from 2017-2018). Last year Kittle was the benefactor of being the only starting position player to be healthy all year. The 49ers simply didn’t have anyone else that could stay healthy long enough to build solid rapport with the QB. Now add a healthy Marquise Goodwin, Dante Pettis starting from day one, and the addition of Tevin Coleman in the offense the ball will be spread around a lot more and Kittle’s numbers will go down.

Tight End – Jared Cook – Current ADP 6.12

Now some may say that taking Jared Cook here isn’t a reach. I mean we all remember when Jimmy Graham was destroying everyone from the Tight End position. Problem is that was back in 2014. Below is what the Tight End position has produced in the last three seasons:

2018 – 41 Receptions (Watson 35, Josh Hill 16)
2017 – 44 Receptions (Fleener 22, Josh Hill 16, Hoomanawanui 6)
2016 – 70 Receptions (Fleener 50, Josh Hill 15, John Phillips 5)

The glaring stat is that since Kamara has joined the league in 2017 he has caught 80+ passes each of the last two seasons and had taken a huge bite out of the target share from Drew Brees that used to go to the Tight End position. The other piece that people aren’t talking about enough is that Jared Cook has only finished as a top 10 tight end ONCE! Before last year Cook finished as TE 15, 36, & 32 respectively over the three season between 2017 and 2015.

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