Welcome to Week 1! And welcome to my first Pop, Lock and Drop It, a weekly article for approaching quarterbacks each week and for DFS.
Let’s break it down a bit:
A “Pop” – a quarterback outside the Top 15 who I believe has Top 5 upside this week.
A “Lock” – a quarterback that, without injury, I cannot see finishing outside of the Top 5 this week.
A “Drop It” – a Top 5 Quarterback that has the best chance of finishing outside the Top 12 this week.
For Week 1 we are using ADP as the ranking factor. As always, we are using 4-points-per-passing-touchdown/-1-point-per-interception scoring.
POP: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Josh Allen is on average the 19th quarterback drafted, which I believe is criminal given his finish over the past few weeks in 2018. Given what he lacks as an overall passer, he makes up for as a runner. Josh Allen was the only quarterback last year to average over 50 rushing yards per game. The Bills also start the season off against the New York Jets. In 2018, the Jets defense was ranked 29th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed.
With a revamped Bills offense, including newly acquired wide receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley, along with the release of LeSean McCoy, Allen has more weapons and more reason to call his own number for rushing yards and touchdowns. So fire up Josh Allen in Week 1.
FLASH FACT! FROM WEEKS 12-17 IN 2018, JOSH ALLEN FINISHED AS THE QB1 AVERAGING 24.2 POINTS PER GAME.
LOCK: Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
Now I do not advocate for drafting Russell at his ADP, 8.06, but I cannot deny that he has a juicy matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals to start the season. In 2018, the Bengals defense was 30th in points allowed and 32nd in yards allow (otherwise known as dead last).
In fact, last year, Cincinnati allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 20.95 fantasy points per game. If Wilson can land that average of 20.95 fantasy points, he would be QB3 for the week, based on 2018 standards. Therefore, I cannot see a world where Russ doesn’t finish in the Top 5 during Week 1.
FLASH FACT! RUSSELL WILSON AVERAGED 24.54 FANTASY POINTS VS. BOTTOM 16 DEFENSES IN 2018.
DROP IT: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
Doubting Aaron Rodgers may come back to bite me, but to me the writing is on the wall. The biggest reason I think he will finish outside the Top 12 Quarterbacks in fantasy points during Week 1 is … the Chicago Bears Defense. In 2018, Chicago was 1st in points allowed and 3rd in yards allowed. Now I understand the two times Rodgers faced the Bears last year was a tale of two games. In Week 1 Rodgers scored 27.1 fantasy points, but in Week 15 the Bears held Rodgers to 16.2 fantasy points.
There are two key factors I believe affected the severe difference in fantasy points: (1) Week 1 was played in Green Bay and Week 15 was played in Chicago; and (2) the second time the two teams met in 2018 Aaron Rodgers came in well under 100%. This year, Week 1 will be played in Chicago, so Rodgers is already missing out on that sweet home field advantage. And again, this year Rodgers is already dealing with an injury. So, if you have another Week 1 option, I would pivot away from Rodgers.
FLASH FACT! IN 2018 AARON RODGERS HAD 8 WEEKS OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 12 QUARTERBACKS.
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