Welcome back for Week 3. Not to toot my own horn, but if you followed this article last week you should have been set up pretty well. Josh Allen didn’t reach his full pop but still ended up QB7 for the week. Lamar Jackson became the first player in NFL history to throw for over 250 yards and rush for over 120 yards in a game. And Matthew Stafford came back down to earth, finishing as QB13 for the week. Let’s hope I can guide you just as well with my Week 3 predictions.
First things first!
Let’s break it down a bit:
A “Pop”- a quarterback outside the Top 15 who I believe has Top 5 upside this week.
A “Lock”- a quarterback that, without injury, I cannot see finishing outside the Top 5 this week.
A “Drop It”- a Top 5 quarterback that has the best chance of finishing outside the Top 12 this week.
As always, we are using 4-points-per-passing-touchdown/-1-points-per-interception scoring.
POP: Jameis Winston
I know what you are thinking … gross. Famous Jameis has not lived up to the offseason hype he received, even though many analysts expected him to be a top fantasy quarterback in 2019. Sitting at QB26 so far this year is well below expectations in a Bruce Arians offense. This week though, Jameis is playing against the new look New York Giants at home, who are starting their rookie, Daniel Jones. The Giants have allowed the 3rd most passing yards in the first two games of the season and have already allowed 5 passing touchdowns. With the very young and inexperienced secondary and extra time to prepare, expect Arians to pick apart the defense which will allow Jameis to pop off.
Honorable Mention: Jacoby Brissett vs ATL
FLASH FACT! IN 2018 JAMEIS HAD HIS HIGHEST PASSER RATING VS THE GIANTS AND HAD A 75% COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
LOCK: Dak Prescott
Coming in hot, Dak Attack is QB2 of the year so far and with a match-up at home versus Miami, I don’t know how his hot streak doesn’t continue. To be frank, Miami sucks. By DVOA, the Dolphins are the worst team ever recorded – by a considerable margin – through the first two weeks of a season. Currently dead last in passing yards and touchdowns allowed, Miami is looking quite abysmal on the defensive side of the ball. And now after trading Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers, Miami doesn’t have anybody to contain Amari Cooper and Dak from lighting up the scoreboard.
Honorable Mentions: Lamar Jackson vs KC, Patrick Mahomes vs Baltimore
FLASH FACT MIAMI IS ALLOWING A 155.9 QBR, WHICH IS 25.7 MORE POINTS THAN THE NEXT LOWEST TEAM!
DROP IT: Deshaun Watson
Now technically, I’m taking some liberties here, seeing as Deshaun is QB6 of the year by .1 fantasy points. BUT there wasn’t anybody in the Top 5 that I think will have a bad week. Deshaun is the highest ranked QB that fits the criteria. Coming off of a bad game versus a very good Jacksonville Jaguars defense, and scoring only 12.9 fantasy points last week, Watson now faces a very strong and aggressive Los Angeles Chargers defense in LA. The Chargers are tied for 8th in passing yards allowed per game with an average of only 209. Deshaun has also been sacked 10 times already this season – the most in the NFL – and with Joey Bosa & Co. across from him it looks like that number will increase. If we are predicting game script, the Texans should run the ball much more than passing it, seeing as LAC has allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game. If you have potentially another good option at QB, you may consider benching Deshaun Watson.
Honorable Mentions: Nobody, top 5 is solid this week
FLASH FACT THROUGH 2 GAMES WATSON RANKS 7 IN QBR BUT 24TH IN DEFENSE ADJUSTED YARDS ABOVE REPLACEMENT