Happy Thanksgiving week everybody, and happy no more byes! Hopefully, the fantasy playoffs are on all of your horizons.
Let’s break it down a bit:
A “Pop”- a quarterback outside the Top 15 who I believe has Top 5 upside this week.
A “Lock”- a quarterback that, without injury, I cannot see finishing outside the Top 5 this week.
A “Drop It”- a Top 5 quarterback that has the best chance of finishing outside the Top 12 this week.
As always, we are using 4-points-per-passing-touchdown/-1-points-per-interception scoring.
POP: Jared Goff vs ARI
That was tough to watch on Monday. Admittedly, I turned off the game when RG3 was put in. Goff has not been good is an understatement. He has not thrown a touchdown since he faced the Bengals – and that was Week 8. That’s the bad. The good is they are facing the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed the most fantasy points above their average over the past few weeks by a considerable margin (7.8pts). With Kyler Murray due to put up points, I can see this being a back and forth affair with lots of fantasy points on both sides.
FLASH FACT! No QB has thrown less than 300 yards versus the Cardinals since Week 7.
Honorable Mention: Sam Darnold vs Cin
LOCK: Patrick Mahomes
Most of the top quarterbacks have negative match-ups, BUT the big one that does not this week is 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes. Facing their division rival, the Oakland Raiders, at home in Arrowhead, I think Mahomes could have his best game of the season. The Raiders are over-traveled and under-rested and facing another road game after getting blown out by the New York Jets. Even if Tyreek Hill doesn’t suit up, look for Mahomes to light up the scoreboard.
FLASH FACT! Patrick Mahomes has thrown 4 touchdowns in 2 out of 3 starts versus Oakland.
Honorable Mentions: None, a lot of bad match-ups for top quarterbacks this week.
DROP IT: Deshaun Watson vs NE
Simply put, the New England defense shuts down quarterbacks. Dak Prescott was held to by far his lowest scoring game this past week, and New England is still allowing less than 10 points to a fantasy quarterback per week. Even with the long rest, if possible I would look to pivot from Watson to an option with a better match-up.
FLASH FACT! New England ranks 1st in least fantasy points allowed versus QBs, RBs, WRs, and Kickers.
Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson vs Min