Can the Bucs Really Beat the Saints?
Any Bucs fan that told you they were rooting for the Saints to beat the Bears were either lying, drunk, or stuck in 2002.
A Bears upset would have gifted the Bucs a home game this week against the Los Angeles Rams, and while that matchup may not be as cozy as one with the Washington Football Team, it’s a lot more enticing than having to face the team that just annihilated you in every facet of the game two months ago.
That final scoreboard read 38-3.
The Saints have beaten the Bucs five straight times. Only one of those five games was the margin single digits. In those five wins, the Saints have scored 155 points, an average of 31 per game. Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees have both dominated the Bucs defense over the last three years, and Michael Thomas is back and the Saints are as healthy as they’ve ever been at any point of the season.
In other words, the Bucs chances don’t exactly appear promising.
However, just like in “The Shawshank Redemption”, there is that word ‘hope’.
Bucs fans have been here before. Maybe not in the Bruce Arians era, but they know what it’s like to be told they don’t have any chance of winning a postseason game.
In January 2000 (the 1999 season), no one thought the Bucs had any chance of prevailing against Kurt Warner and “the greatest show on turf”. The Rams were favored by 14 points at home, the largest line ever in an NFC Championship Game, and their No. 1 ranked offense was just about as explosive as this year’s Alabama team.
The Bucs, led by third string quarterback Shaun King, found a way, though, to compete. The defense missed two tackles all game, and punched the Rams offense in the mouth.
The Bucs led 6-5 midway through the fourth quarter, but Warner hit receiver Ricky Proehl on a deep corner route to edge the Rams ahead, 11-6. The Bucs made a list ditch effort, driving down the field and looking to win the game, but a controversial incomplete pass from King to Bert Emmanuel deflated their chances. The pass, which by rule would be called complete today, would be dubbed “The Bert Emmanuel Rule”. The Rams held on to win 11-6 and then won the Super Bowl the following game against the Titans.
Three years later, the Bucs again had the whole world discounting their chances, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles in the final game at Veteran’s Stadium, known simply as “The Vet”. It was the third year in a row the Bucs went on the road there in the playoffs. The Bucs failed to score a touchdown in any of those games, outscored 52-12. The failures in Philadelphia were a large reason why Tony Dungy was fired after the 2001 season and Jon Gruden was hired (or rather, traded for).
The Bucs and Eagles had met earlier in the season at the Vet, too, where the Eagles dominated. Worse yet, the Bucs had to try and win a playoff game in sub-32 degree weather, something they had never accomplished.
But the Bucs played arguably a perfect game, executing mistake-free drives, and just like against the Rams in 1999, punched the dominant Eagles offense led by Donovan McNabb in the mouth. The Bucs beat the Eagles 27-10 to go on to the Super Bowl where they routed Jon Gruden’s former team, the Oakland Raiders, 48-21.
Now the pessimistic Bucs fan might say that this Bucs team doesn’t have the defenses those teams did, but the optimistic fan would counter by saying no Bucs team in history had an offense this explosive and talented.
As we stated last week, too, this Bucs team is experienced, maybe not so much the franchise in recent memory, but the players wearing the pewter colors. Tom Brady has a little bit of playoff success. That’s if you call 31 playoff wins and six super bowl rings success.
Additionally, Rob Gronkowski has three rings. Arians has won a Super Bowl as a coordinator with the Steelers and was to the Championship Game as a head coach for the Cardinals. And Antonio Brown has been to the Super Bowl with the Steelers.
But throwing away all the history and records and rings, in the end, it comes to 60 minutes. None of those things really matter in the grand scheme of things. It’s all about talent and executing plays. For the Bucs to win, they need to accomplish five major goals:
1. Give Brady Time
Tom Brady probably doesn’t get many nightmares sleeping at home in his mansion in Tampa alongside his model wife, but occasionally, he may wake up in sweats thinking of the Saints defensive line which has pummeled him this season. The first game, tackles Donovan Smith and rookie Tristan Wirfs were steamrolled by outside pressure from Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and in the second meeting, it seemed the whole offensive line was under attack.
But the Bucs line has improved immensely over the last two months. All-Pro Ali Marpet wasn’t healthy and didn’t play in the two teams’ last meeting, and Wirfs is nowhere near the player he was early in the season, becoming one of the best rookie sensations from the 2020 year.
There’s confidence the Bucs can control the Saints defense more than they did the last two games, but a lot of pressure will be on Brady’s blindside and Donovan Smith. The good news? Smith did a better than adequate job containing Chase Young last week.
2. Stop Kamara and Thomas
Alvin Kamara and the Saints run and screen game has been a thorn in the Bucs side. In November, while Kamara was more quiet than usual, he, Taysom Hill, and Latavius Murray ran the ball 26 times for 143 yards, the most the Bucs No. 1 rush defense has given up on the ground all year. Kamara also scored twice in the team’s first meeting, and had over 100 all-purpose yards in each of his two games last year.
The reason why it’s hard to contain Kamara is because of his dual threat ability and the Saints other weapon, Michael Thomas. Thomas has four touchdowns in these two teams’ last four meetings, including a 182-yard performance and 113-yard performance.
If Kamara and Thomas continue to run free and make plays against the Bucs defense, the chances of the Bucs getting to the NFC Championship diminish greatly. They need to find ways to limit their production.
3. Limit the Mistakes
The Bucs are not known for being a turnover machine, but have been been when they played the Saints. Tom Brady had by far his worst game of the year in November, throwing three picks against the New Orleans defense, finishing with a 40.4 rating. He threw two picks in the opening day game against the Saints back in September and had a fumble forced. That’s five picks in two games, something Brady has never done against two opponents in back-to-back games in his entire career. If you go back to last year, we’re not even going to go into the turnovers from Jameis Winston. The name speaks for itself.
Part of the reason for the interceptions goes back to point No. 1. The offensive line needs to give Brady time to throw, and the coaching staff has to formulate a plan for backs and receivers to get open quicker. Many of Brady’s picks have been downfield, so more screens and slants need to be effective.
The good news is the Bucs passing game has been much more efficient in recent weeks, some of that which has to do with Antonio Brown’s ability to turn short completions into big gains. Brown will likely need to be a big part of the offense on Sunday.
4. Start fast
Want to know a major reason why the Bucs are on a winning streak (well, besides the fact their schedule has been lighter)? They’re getting off to much better starts. Between Nov. 8 and Dec. 20, the Bucs went on a stretch where they were outscored 59-7 in the first quarter and 108-55 in the first half. That includes a 31-0 deficit to the Saints in the first half back in November.
Over the course of the last three games, they’ve completely turned that around, outscoring their opponents 32-3 in the first quarter and 75-17 in the first half.
The quicker they can start against New Orleans, the more confidence they can gain and the more Arians can stick to his game plan. Get behind early, and it plays right into New Orleans’ defensive scheme. They want you to throw, and if the Bucs become one-dimensional, they’ll be watching the NFC Championship game from home next week.
5. Get the Backs Involved
Part of the reason for the better start the last three games is the Bucs have leaned more on their running backs both on the ground and in the air. Leonard Fournette has been re-born, running for 93 yards a week ago and catching four passes for 39 yards. Against Atlanta, it was Ronald Jones finding holes in the Falcons defense.
Granted, the Saints defense isn’t the Falcons, but it is close to Washington’s. Say what you will about the Washington Football Team’s inability to score a lot of points this season, but they ranked No. 3 against the run, and the Bucs ability to get big chunks of yards on the ground last week is a good sign going into Sunday.
The run game is huge because it opens up play action, and when you have a passing offense as scary as the Bucs is, making the defense flinch just that little bit on play action because they respect the run game can make the world of difference in putting together big plays.
The last time these two teams played, the Bucs ran it five times for 8 yards, setting an all-time NFL record for fewest rushing attempts in a game. September wasn’t much better, with Jones and Fournette combining for just 71 yards on 22 touches.
If the Bucs have any chance of winning Sunday, they must make the Saints respect their rushing attack.
The good news? You don’t have to worry about crowd noise. You know the Saints well. There’s nothing new about them. What you see is what you get. And you have Tom Brady, the playoff king.
The bad news? It’s Drew Brees and the Saints.
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